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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.